Every experienced flipper eventually runs into a deal where the comps just aren’t there.

Maybe:

• You’re buying in a rural area with low volume

• The house is wildly different from the others on the block

• Recent sales data is outdated or skewed

• The flip style is modern, but the rest of the neighborhood is dated

No close comps means high risk, but it doesn’t mean you can’t get the numbers right.

You just need to comp differently.

This article walks you through how to underwrite deals when your usual comp process fails, and how to avoid overpaying in the dark.

Step 1: Establish the “General Zone” ARV

You won’t be able to comp precisely, but you can often estimate a ballpark range.

Here’s how to build that range:

Look at older sales
Even if there’s nothing recent, older sales (6–18 months back) can help you find a general per-square-foot baseline.

Expand your radius
If there are no comps within 0.5 miles, widen your search to 1–2 miles, but adjust for neighborhood desirability.

Use condition-adjusted comps
If only dated or beat-up homes have sold, estimate the price bump based on flips in nearby zips.

Look at price per foot
Even if the styles vary, price per square foot creates a starting point to work from.

Apply market trend data
Check if prices have moved up or down in the last 3–6 months. Use those adjustments to bring old comps current.

This helps you establish a baseline ARV range (e.g., “this flip will likely sell between $370K–$390K”).

It’s not exact, but it gets you started.

Step 2: Use Inferential Comps

When direct sales data is limited, you need to get creative.

Use inferential comps, other homes that point toward value, even if they’re not 1:1 matches.

Here’s how to work them:

Pending Listings
Pending homes in the area show what buyers are currently willing to pay. Look for flips under contract to estimate demand.

Withdrawn & Expired Listings
These tell you what didn’t sell, which is just as important. If flips priced at $410K all expired, you know to stay below that.

Rental Listings
In cash flow neighborhoods, you can sometimes estimate ARV by reverse-engineering investor yields. (e.g., a $2,000/mo rent might support a $250K sale price for a 1% buyer.)

Tax-Assessed Value + Market Factor
If you’re really stuck, use the tax-assessed value as a base and apply the local ratio (e.g., homes in this county tend to sell at 1.25x assessed value).

Zillow/Redfin Estimates (with skepticism)
AVMs aren’t perfect, but they give a baseline, especially if both Zillow and Redfin show similar numbers.

Step 3: Deconstruct the Subject Property’s Value

Now turn your attention inward.

Even without comps, your subject property still has:

• Square footage

• Bed/bath count

• Lot size

• Location qualities (corner, cul-de-sac, view)

• Potential flip finishes

Use this to build a valuation model from the inside out.

Adjust for value drivers
Estimate dollar values for key features:

• Extra bathroom = +$15K

• Garage = +$10–15K

• Big lot = +$5–10K

• Pool = +$25–40K (varies by region)

These aren’t precise, but they help you build the value story instead of relying on comps alone.

Cost-to-value modeling
If you plan to spend $60K on rehab, and similar projects nearby sold for $90K over their purchase price, your ARV could be in the same zone.

Step 4: Interview Local Agents (the Right Way)

One of the most underused tools for comping edge-case flips is local agents.

But only if you ask smart questions.

Don’t say:

“What do you think this would sell for fixed up?”

Instead ask:

• “Have any homes like this sold in the last year?”

• “What’s the highest flip sale in this pocket recently?”

• “If I rehabbed this to HGTV level, what would I realistically get?”

• “What buyers shop here, end users or investors?”

An agent’s off-the-cuff number can be wrong, but their market sense is invaluable for pricing on the edge of data.

Step 5: Factor in Buyer Pool Size

Lack of comps often means a small buyer pool.

That alone impacts ARV, because the fewer buyers who want it, the harder it is to create a bidding environment.

Ask:

• Is this a rural flip that only cash buyers will touch?

• Is the layout weird (e.g., 2 bed, 1 bath at 2,200 sq ft)?

• Is it too big or too small for the area?

Even if a unique flip could sell for $450K, it won’t if only two buyers are interested.

In uncertain ARV cases, always apply a liquidity discount of 5–10%.

Step 6: Study DOM, Not Just Price

When comps are scarce, look at days on market (DOM) as a signal.

If nearby flips sat for 90+ days, that tells you:

• Buyer demand is low

• Your project may face price resistance

• The area might have appraisal issues

In this case, either:

• Reduce your target ARV

• Extend your holding time assumptions

• Walk from the deal

Slower sales mean more risk, which means you need more margin.

Step 7: Adjust Your Offer Based on Uncertainty

When you don’t have solid comps, the only safe option is to offer less.

You’re compensating for:

• Soft ARV certainty

• Extended holding risk

• Market guesswork

Use this mental model:

The fuzzier the exit, the fatter the margin.

If a flip with perfect comps would allow for a $50K margin, but your uncertain flip only offers the same, walk.

You need extra margin to make up for unknowns.

As a rule of thumb:

• Require 10–15% more profit on no-comp flips

• Model a longer timeline and reduced ARV

• Negotiate harder with the seller to build in margin

Real-World Examples of Hard-to-Comp Flips

Let’s look at a few examples of deals without clean comps, and how to price them anyway.

Case 1: Rural Farmhouse with No Recent Sales Nearby

• Location: 2 acres, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,800 sq ft

• No sales in 1 mile

• One 2022 comp at $360K, dated condition

• Subject is well-maintained with room for modern updates

Strategy:
Use $360K as a baseline, then adjust for time (e.g., +3% per year if appreciation).
Interview the agent about buyer demand.
Model exit at $375K and stress test down to $355K.

Case 2: 1980s McMansion in Tract Home Subdivision

• Most homes are 1,800–2,200 sq ft

• Subject is 3,800 sq ft

• No comps over 3,000 sq ft

Strategy:
Can’t use $/sq ft from small homes, it won’t scale.
Instead, estimate value curve flattening (e.g., $200/sq ft for the first 2,000, $150/sq ft after).
Model ARV from bottom up and sanity check with the listing history of similar giants in a 3–5 mile radius.

Case 3: Ultra-Modern Flip in a Dated Suburb

• 1950s neighborhood

• Subject has $90K of modern finishes

• Last 5 sales were unrenovated at $310K–$340K

Strategy:
Use $340K as a ceiling, then estimate the value of the upgrades
Apply a 5–10% “modernization boost”, test resale at $360K–$375K
Interview agents on buyer interest in high-end flips in the area

Tools That Help When Comps Are Weak

Leverage these tools to strengthen your numbers:

PropStream or BatchLeads:
Let you filter for older comps, withdrawn listings, and pre-foreclosures that may have listed but not sold.

Realtor.com or Redfin Map View:
Helpful to visually spot weird outliers and patterns in pricing.

HouseCanary or Collateral Analytics (paid)
Professional AVMs can be more accurate than public tools.

Local MLS Access or Agent Partnership
Get access to historical listings, DOM, and agent notes.

Remine (for sold + off-market history)
Can help spot investor flips even if they didn’t relist.

Contingencies to Use on Hard-to-Comp Deals

When comps are thin, your contract needs protection clauses.

Use these contingencies:

Appraisal Contingency: If you’re using hard money, this can help you back out if the lender undervalues the deal.

Inspection and “Subject to Partner Approval”: Gives you extra time to research comps without fully committing.

Feasibility Period: A 7–10 day window to confirm resale assumptions, permitting risks, and zoning if needed.

Trust the Numbers, Not Your Hope

It’s easy to fall in love with a unique deal, especially when there’s no comp telling you “no.”

But that’s exactly when flippers get burned.

Use this rule:

If you can’t comp it confidently, price it cautiously.

In flip underwriting, certainty adds value, and uncertainty demands discount.

How to Comp When Nothing Similar Has Sold

When comps are thin, here’s what to do:

• Build a ballpark ARV range from old, wider, or condition-adjusted comps

• Use inferential data (pending, expired, rental, assessed)

• Deconstruct the subject property’s value by feature

• Talk to local agents and stress-test their insights

• Factor in buyer pool size and DOM

• Adjust ARV downward and timeline upward

• Require more margin to offset risk

• Protect yourself with contingencies

You don’t need perfect data, but you do need discipline.

Your flip numbers are only as good as the questions you ask.

Make sure the biggest one is always: “What happens if I’m wrong?”